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Seventy-Eight Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices (as of 12/13/2003) By Douglas Kanarowski (Series 1)

I am an individual investor that has been following the evolving silver story for the past 19 years. Being curious about how high silver prices might eventually go, I began making a list of the APPROACHING FORCES that will likely contribute to higher prices. To make the list, entries must satisfy two substantial qualifiers: FAIRLY LARGE IN SCOPE and are STILL YET TO COME. I was surprised at length of my final list. The following represents a collection of what others have said over the years and a dose of my own common sense and thinking.

Before I start, one tremendously important fact needs to be established so that you can better assimilate “THE APPROACHING FORCES” information. Drum roll please …. NO ONE ON EARTH KNOWS WHAT THE TRUE PRICE OF SILVER SHOULD BE!!  Why is this? Because, since1945, the end of WWII, the U.S. government has been selling-off the world’s largest-ever silver stockpile. For the past 57 years, the government has dumped a total of 6 billion ounces of silver onto the world market. (This quantity equates to about 100 million ounces per year. And, as of late 2002, the entire U.S. government stockpile is now officially gone.) My conclusion is that ANY MARKET that has undergone this degree of distortion for this long, has lost all contact with the irrefutable laws of supply and demand that ultimately will determine price.

1.     The same PROFESSIONAL DEALERS and INSIDERS that have made so much and done so much structural damage on the downside will surely be positioned to capitalize on the upside. At the very least, their personal accounts will somehow be properly positioned. (For example, as recently as the summer of 2002, these insiders had been short more than 350 million ounces of silver when the entire COMEX warehouse only held about 100 million ounces.) These people are just too big, powerful, smart and well connected to let this stellar opportunity pass them up. Their activities have not simply analogous to holding a lifejacket underwater but rather holding a helium filled balloon underwater. It not only wants to break the surface but also wants to fly to the moon.

2.    Because of the on-going silver supply deficit (every year since 1990), known silver stockpiles are low and are well on their way to zero. Between now and “zero-stockpile day”, SOMEONE-SOMEWHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUY AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE OF THE REMAINING PHYSICAL STOCK. Wealthy individuals, hedge funds, political entities and un-named countries are all possible candidates. At $5 silver, the 100 million-ounce COMEX stock could be had for $500 million. This “accident waiting to happen” will come unannounced and as a surprise. Why hasn’t this already happened? In part because the perpetrators will be unfairly villianized for causing the resulting shortage & price spike.

3.     For eons the US GOVERNMENT has been a silver supplier. They have announced that beginning sometime in 2002, they will become a buyer due to exhausted supplies; an effective double whammy for silver price.

4.    In a rapidly rising price environment, the process of metal coming to market will SLOW. Why? A DELAYED SHIPMENT will stand an excellent chance of being worth even more.

5.    In a free market, the amount of metal coming to market will have to “overshoot” demand to create at least some SURPLUS.  Stated another way, the words “silver deficit” will have to be removed from current literature. A permanent silver deficit is economically impossible in a free market.

6.    The practice of “just-in-time” or zero inventory techniques will give way to the old STOCKING-UP MENTALITY for all distributors and end users. Why? Survival and price protection. Inventory building will increase demand & price.

7.    The historically common practice of stockpiling silver by the big money crowd is not currently in vogue. WORLDWIDE REBUILDING of government STRATEGIC STOCKPILES, central banker VAULTS and Swiss custodial BANK ACCOUNTS will come back into fashion by TPTB.

8.    Due to such a long period of low prices there has been a decrease in silver SUBSTITUTION research than would otherwise have they been the case.

9.    Since silver cannot be created, it can only originate from 3 sources: ABOVE GROUND SUPPLIES, re-cycled silver, and mine production. Above ground supplies are nearing exhaustion, leaving only two remaining sources. Simple math. 3 minus 1 leaves us with only 2 sources.

10.    Silver MINES open and silver mines close. More primary silver mines are CLOSING than opening (usually due to depletion).  A report from silver expert David Morgan, showed a loss of 50 million ounces of production in 2001.

To be continued…